Former President Donald Trump secured the 2024 Republican nomination for president on Tuesday, surpassing the 1,215 delegate threshold after victories in the Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington state primaries. These wins solidified his dominance in the GOP primaries and caucuses, with the exception of Vermont and the District of Columbia, where former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley emerged as the victor. Following her disappointing Super Tuesday performance, Haley suspended her campaign.
Remarkably, Trump managed to achieve these victories without participating in any of the five Republican National Committee-sanctioned forums, choosing instead to rely on his double-digit polling advantage since his campaign launch in November 2022. Although Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis initially posed as a strong contender, he fell behind after Trump’s surge in support. Trump currently enjoys the backing of nearly 80% of Republican voters, despite facing 91 felony counts.
As Trump heads into the general election, he confronts legal challenges (lawfare), including his first criminal trial starting on March 25 in Manhattan. This trial involves allegations of hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels. Furthermore, Trump faces impending trials in Georgia, Washington, D.C., and Florida related to accusations of interfering in the 2020 election and mishandling classified documents during his presidency.
Looking forward to the general election, Trump aims to become the first former president since Grover Cleveland to secure a second non-consecutive term. His opponent will be President Biden, resulting in the first general election rematch since 1956, when President Dwight Eisenhower faced off against Adlai Stevenson. Recent surveys indicate that Trump holds an advantage over Biden, with a New York Times and Siena College poll showing a 48% to 43% lead in favor of Trump. He also retains 97% of his core supporters from the 2020 campaign and has gained the support of 10% of former Biden voters.
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Furthermore, various surveys reveal Trump’s lead over Biden in key battleground states such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Even in Georgia, where Biden won in 2020, recent polling shows Trump with a slight advantage.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, faces challenges with declining approval ratings and waning support among crucial Democratic voting blocs. Concerns over the economy, border security, and his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict are contributing to this erosion of support. Additionally, a Justice Department report raising questions about Biden’s mental acuity has added to his difficulties; the report cites his poor memory as a factor in the decision not to pursue charges related to his retention of classified documents after his vice presidency.
While Biden secured the Democratic nomination by winning the Georgia, Mississippi, Washington, and Northern Mariana Islands primaries, his only defeat this cycle came from the previously unknown candidate Jason Palmer in the American Samoa Democratic caucus on Super Tuesday.
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